Quantum Computing
Quantum computing has the potential to break current encryption systems, reshape cybersecurity, and accelerate Artificial Intelligence (AI) and biotech breakthroughs
Up Front: Quantum computing is viewed as a national security concern, an economic advantage, and a decisive factor in global power dynamics. While its capabilities remain theoretical, quantum computing, combined with AI, is poised to revolutionize or disrupt multiple industries, particularly the defense, economic, and security sectors. Consequently, this dynamic has sparked strategic competition among major powers, as whoever develops and controls it first could gain a decisive advantage for the foreseeable future.
What is Quantum Computing?
Quantum computers, in principle, can solve certain mathematical algorithms exponentially faster than regular computers. Instead of regular bits (0s and 1s), quantum computers use 'qubits,' following the rules of quantum physics. This behavior allows quantum computers to perform complex calculations that regular computers can not handle.
Quantum computing presents a security threat because it has the potential to break the encryption algorithms and cryptographic primitives that currently safeguard digital communication and data. These encryption methods rely on the computational difficulty of solving complex mathematical problems, tasks that are impossible for classical computers to complete in a reasonable timeframe. In theory, quantum computers could solve these problems much more efficiently, thereby compromising the confidentiality and integrity of sensitive information across networks. While quantum machines don’t exist yet, the possibility is so real that scientists are already racing to develop new, quantum-safe security tools.
So What?
The primary concern lies in the key transmission process, which is susceptible to quantum threats.
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When two devices want to communicate securely, they use asymmetric encryption (like RSA or ECC) to exchange a shared secret key. This process is called a key exchange, establishing an asymmetric channel between the sender and the recipient.
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Once the secure channel is open, a symmetric key is sent through it. This symmetric key is then used to encrypt the actual data because it is faster and more efficient than asymmetric encryption. Both sender and recipient share an identical symmetric key, allowing them to encrypt and decrypt the data between them.
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The core of the quantum threat lies in the vulnerability of the symmetric key, which is used to encrypt and decrypt most of our data. Attackers are currently intercepting and storing entire encrypted communication today, even if they cannot read it now, in a strategy known as “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later.” In the future, a quantum computer could break the asymmetric encrypted data transmission, including the symmetric key and the data encrypted by it. Once in possession of the symmetric key, actors could decrypt both past and future data tied to that key.
Leveraging machine learning and artificial intelligence, actors could consolidate, reconfigure, and analyze the data and obtain valuable information.
The Quantum Risk
Strategic Competition
The United States is prioritizing post-quantum cryptography, maintaining its technological edge, and protecting intellectual property and access to technology. Meanwhile, China is heavily investing in quantum technologies as part of its national rejuvenation strategy, focusing on quantum communication networks, satellites, and cryptography.
In 2024, the United States imposed quantum export controls to restrict access for adversaries like China and maintain technological leadership while allowing exemptions for allied nations. China has committed over $15 billion to quantum R&D and made significant progress in quantum communication satellites. While U.S. export controls may slow China's access to key technologies like semiconductors, they cannot restrict the flow of research and education.
In the European Union, quantum technology is crucial to Europe's digital sovereignty. Due to recent geopolitical tensions and conflicts, the EU is actively pursuing strategic autonomy, aiming to decouple and reduce technological dependency on countries like the United States. However, recent reports suggest this goal remains unrealistic for now because of the EU's significant reliance on American technology.
Until quantum computing becomes viable, China and other nations are reportedly using a "harvest now, decrypt later" tactic - stealing encrypted data now with the intent to decrypt it once the technology matures.
Amid growing tensions and unhealthy competition, the key question remains: how should quantum technology be governed? If a country or private entity first develops quantum-enabled decryption, should it share the discovery, keep it secret, or weaponize it?
In the absence of enforceable international norms or governance, it is imperative for nations to collaborate and establish agreements to prevent misuse and instability.
In-depth Learning
We all enjoy watching YouTube videos - Above are curated video selections that offer insights into quantum computing and quantum computers, the risks involved with this technology, and expert perspectives from renowned sources such as Dr. Michio Kaku, Dr. Lloyd, IBM researchers and executives, and national security specialists. You'll also get a glimpse of what a quantum computer looks like.
>While all four videos offer valuable insights, those by Dr. Michio Kaku and journalist Hannah Fry are especially recommended if time is limited.<
How Quantum Computers Break the Internet - Backed by an extensive list of references, Veritasium offers an in-depth look at quantum computing, explaining how quantum computers could break RSA encryption using Shor’s algorithm, and highlighting the urgent move toward quantum-resistant cryptography like lattice-based encryption to secure our digital future.
Dr. Michio Kaku: Quantum computing is the next revolution - Dr. Michio Kaku walks us through the evolutionary journey of quantum computing, from analog to digital to the quantum era. He explores the rise of quantum computing, concepts like quantum supremacy, and its potential to revolutionize diverse sectors while separating real promise from the surrounding hype.
The Race to Harness Quantum Computing's Mind-Bending Power - Journalist Hannah Fry visits IBM’s R&D facilities to explore the Q System Two. IBM’s Director of Research highlights the high cost of R&D, the need to invest to lead in quantum computing, and the importance of collaboration with external partners—though not with China, due to national security and economic concerns. Quantum computing is considered a sensitive technology with significant geostrategic importance, influencing global trade and military alliances.
Quantum Computing: Hype vs. Reality - Seth Lloyd and Brian Greene discuss the fundamentals of quantum mechanics. If you're into nerding out like I am, the first few sections dive into the fundamentals of quantum mechanics and computation. The last section (30:20) talks about how the hype around quantum computing can be misleading. It explains that while quantum computers have huge potential, getting useful results is complex, and major technical challenges still stand in the way.
Initiatives and Policies
In 2018, the United States government passed the National Quantum Initiative Act directing a coordinated 10-year federal effort to advance quantum information science through research, education, and industry collaboration. Key agencies like NIST, NASA, NSF, and DOE are tasked with leading research programs, setting standards, and establishing national centers to accelerate breakthroughs in quantum technology. The strategy contains six areas of policy: science, workforce, industry, infrastructure, economic security, and international cooperation.
The 2018 U.S. National Strategic Overview for Quantum Information Science (QIS) policy document emphasizes a science-first approach to QIS, focusing on strengthening federal research, fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, developing a quantum-ready workforce, and advancing public-private partnerships. It also prioritizes critical infrastructure, national security, and international cooperation to reinforce U.S. leadership and responsible innovation in the quantum landscape.
Since releasing the 2018 National Strategic Policy document, the United States has published several follow-up reports that expand and refine its national quantum strategy.
To emulate the success of the Semiconductor Research Corporation, the 2018 U.S. NSO for QIS called for the creation of a U.S. Quantum Consortium. This consortium would include government, academia, and industry, serving as a vital mechanism for collaborative research, technical exchange, and a shared understanding of the QIS industry’s trajectory, opportunities, and critical technical gaps. While that vision has not yet materialized, the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) established the Washington Metropolitan Quantum Network Research Consortium (DC-QNet), partnering with five other federal agencies to advance quantum networking capabilities and U.S. leadership in the field.
International Strategies and Initiatives
On 17 January 2024, NATO released its first Quantum Technologies Strategy, focused on establishing a quantum-ready Alliance. The strategy outlines how quantum technologies could support defense and security by enabling breakthroughs in sensing, imaging, and precision navigation, enhancing submarine detection, and securing communications through cryptography resistant to quantum attacks. Its core pillars include identifying dual-use quantum technologies, establishing interoperability standards, transitioning to quantum-safe cryptography, and guarding against adversarial investments.
The strategy stresses that the Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) and the NATO Innovation Fund (NIF) are critical to NATO's quantum efforts. DIANA, with over 200 accelerator sites and test centers across the Alliance, provides companies with support, networks, and expertise to develop deep technologies for critical defense and security challenges, from contested environments to threats to collective resilience.
Like the United States NSO for QIS consortium proposal, NATO launched the Transatlantic Quantum Community initiative to engage with government, industry, and academia from across the innovation landscape. In late 2024, they held their annual plenary conference in Copenhagen. During the meeting, NATO Assistant Secretary General Jean-Charles Ellermann-Kingombe emphasized that maintaining leadership in quantum technology is vital to NATO’s security, and that achieving this will require not only significant investment but also the mobilization of resources and expertise across public and private stakeholders within the Alliance and its partners.
To mark the 100th anniversary of the study of quantum mechanics, promote global collaboration, and address critical challenges in science and technology, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) declared 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology. The UN resolution appointed the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) as the lead agency and focal point for this initiative.
In contrast to the United States and NATO's efforts, the United Nations takes a holistic approach, viewing quantum as a transformational technology for humanity rather than a geopolitical asset. While it recognizes the security implications and concerns, its focus is towards promoting global collaboration, raising public awareness and education, and advancements in sustainable solutions in energy, education, accessibility to technology, communications, technology innovation, economic growth, and human health.
References
United States National Security Agency. (2021). Quantum computing and post-quantum cryptography: Frequently asked questions. U.S. National Security Agency. https://media.defense.gov/2021/Aug/04/2002821837/-1/-1/1/Quantum_FAQs_20210804.PDF
Lindsay, J. R. (2020). Surviving the quantum cryptocalypse. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 14(2), 49–74.
Milaninia, N., & Galdo, M. (2025). Guest post — The quantum cold war is here. Quantum Insider. https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/03/29/guest-post-the-quantum-cold-war-is-here/
Milaninia, N., & Galdo, M. (2025). Guest post — The quantum cold war is here. Quantum Insider.
Milaninia, N., & Galdo, M. (2025).
Evans, S. (2025). Siemens partners on quantum platform for automotives and drones. IOT World Today. https://www.iotworldtoday.com/quantum/siemens-partners-on-quantum-platform-for-automotives-and-drones#close-modal
Pollet, M. (2025). EU views break from US as ‘unrealistic’ amid global tech race. Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-us-big-tech-companies-trade-international-digital-strategy-europe-competitiveness/
Qrypt. (n.d.). Explaining quantum risk. Qrypt. https://www.qrypt.com/resources/explaining-quantum-risk/
United States Congress. (2018). H.R.6227 - National Quantum Initiative Act. https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/6227
United States National Science & Technology Council. (2018). National strategic overview for quantum information science (QIS). https://www.quantum.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2018_NSTC_National_Strategic_Overview_QIS.pdf
Cage, P. (2022). NRL announces the Washington Metropolitan Quantum Network Research Consortium (DC-QNet). United States Naval Research Laboratory. https://www.nrl.navy.mil/Media/News/Article/3060477/nrl-announces-the-washington-metropolitan-quantum-network-research-consortium-d/
NATO. (2024). Summary of NATO’s quantum technologies strategy. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_221777.htm
NATO. (2024). Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA). https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_216199.htm
NATO. (2024). NATO quantum experts gather in Copenhagen for annual conference. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_230539.htm?selectedLocale=en
Quantum 2025. (2024). About IYQ. 2025 International Year of Quantum Science and Technology. https://quantum2025.org/about/
Quantum 2025. (2024).